Population Reaches 2 Million
Written by adman16Wednesday, 05 December 2007 23:41
Clark County population reaches 2 million
By HENRY BREAN
December 5th 2007
REVIEW-JOURNAL ESTIMATE ROOTED IN SIMPLE FORMULA
Error results in discovery of about 27,000 uncounted residents
No alarms sounded. No balloons or confetti came showering down from the ceiling.
Clark County's two millionth resident simply showed up sometime in the last
three months, and no one -- not even the milestone newcomer
─ noticed the difference.
"My guess is that it happened in September," said Jon Wardlaw, who oversees
population estimates as assistant planning manager for Clark County. "It's not
an exact science."
Wardlaw and other local demographers learned that lesson in spectacular fashion
recently, when a flaw was discovered in the method used to estimate the county's
population.
The subtle processing error, which had gone unnoticed for some time and involved
housing units built in large developments during the second half of a calendar
year, resulted in the discovery of about 27,000 county residents who had
previously gone uncounted.
As a result, Wardlaw said, what originally looked like a sharp drop in the
valley's growth rate turned out to be a modest decline. What looked like 2.7
percent growth, down from 5.3 percent the year before, was actually more like
3.7 percent.
All of that translated to an official July 1 population estimate for Clark
County of 1,996,542. And from that figure has produced a host of guesses about
whether -- and when -- the county's odometer rolled over to 2 million.
University of Nevada, Las Vegas economist Keith Schwer said he suspects it could
have happened as early as Aug. 15, but he plans to stick by his earlier
prediction because it's easier to remember.
Several months ago, Schwer, who heads up UNLV's Center for Business and Economic
Research, predicted the 2 millionth resident would arrive on -- why not? -- Oct.
31, otherwise known as Nevada Day.
He picked the same date in 1994 for when Clark County hit the 1 million mark.
"Last time it was in the afternoon. This time it (was) in the morning," he said
with a chuckle.
Regardless of the exact date, 2 million is the latest milestone in a dizzying
surge that has seen the county's population double since 1994 and quadruple
since 1981.
All but about 3 percent of those residents live in the Las Vegas Valley, where
growth is fueled, as it has been since the days of the El Rancho Vegas, by
unending development along the Strip.
Nearly 39 million tourists visited Las Vegas last year, an increase of almost
350,000 over 2005. Analysts say that for every new resort hotel room built, the
community gains roughly seven new jobs and 14 new residents.
"Nineteen of the last 20 years we were the fastest growing place, and Nevada was
the fastest growing state, in the country," Schwer said.
The county's public services and infrastructure have struggled -- and in some
cases failed -- to keep pace. And as the people keep coming, the improvements
required to accommodate them grow ever more audacious and expensive.
Pressed by mounting demand and lingering drought, the Southern Nevada Water
Authority is gearing up to build 285 miles of pipeline -- at a cost of more than
$2 billion -- to import groundwater from across Eastern Nevada.
Meanwhile, state and local officials are scrapping and scrambling to fund $5
billion worth of highway "super projects," most of them designed to unclog Clark
County's major arteries.
Even criminals are feeling the strain. At the county's downtown detention
center, it took just two years to outgrow a 2002 expansion project that nearly
doubled the facility's capacity. Now hundreds of inmates sleep on cots in the
dayroom while officials rush the construction of a satellite jail that some
predict could be filled to the brim almost as soon as it opens.
Then there is the Clark County School District.
Since the county's population topped 1 million in 1994, the district has opened
new schools at a pace approaching one per month but still starts each year with
too many students and not enough teachers and classrooms.
"I hope the two millionth person is a math teacher looking for a job,"
Superintendent Walt Rulffes said.
In nine years with the nation's fifth-largest district, Rulffes has seen
enrollment increase by more than 100,000 students.
"I do think to some extent that the growth is a distraction to the academic
mission," Rulffes said.
Clark County Commissioner Bruce Woodbury has seen more growth than most people.
The county was home to about 20,000 when Woodbury was born here in 1944. As a
child, he lived down the street from Huntridge Circle Park and attended John S.
Park Elementary School near Charleston Boulevard and Maryland Parkway.
"That was sort of the edge of town," he said. "I liked Las Vegas back then."
Woodbury moved to Boulder City in 1978 and joined the commission in 1981, as
Clark County's population was closing in on the half-million mark.
"Certainly back in the '80s we knew we had rapid growth, but the predictions
then were that it would taper off," he said. "The growth has just never stopped
since then. It's never really slowed down to any extent."
As a result, the Las Vegas Valley is "way too big" for his tastes, and it has
been for some time.
"I'm not one who frankly likes this rapid growth. I think the quality of life is
suffering to a certain extent in terms of crime, traffic congestion, (and)
school crowding," said Woodbury, who recently assumed the title of
longest-tenured county commissioner in Nevada history.
Clark County Manager Virginia Valentine, who moved here the year Woodbury took
office, said rapid growth has completely changed the character of Las Vegas. "It
doesn't have that kind of small town feeling like it used to. It doesn't really
gel as a community," she said.
One possible explanation for that, said UNLV's Schwer: "We're all from someplace
else."
Nevada has the lowest percentage of natives in the country. Less than a third of
current residents were born in the Silver State, and more than half have lived
here fewer than 12 years, Schwer said.
Using simple probability and some data collected last year, Schwer said a rough
thumbnail sketch can be made of the milestone newcomer.
The 2 millionth resident is probably male, since Nevada is home to slightly more
men than women. And like almost 49 percent of newcomers, he is probably white,
though other ethnic groups, especially Hispanics, are coming to Clark County in
increasing numbers.
If the 2 millionth resident adheres to the averages, he is about 38 years old
and earns about $43,800 a year. He has a high school diploma and at least some
college education, if not a bachelor's degree. He is married or has a live-in
girlfriend, and he is more likely to rent the roof over his head than own it, at
least at first.
The 2 millionth resident probably came from somewhere in California, most likely
the southern half of the state. "He's probably been to an In-N-Out Burger, put
it that way," Schwer said.
More new residents come here from California than any other state. Arizona is
second, Florida third, Texas fourth. New York, Illinois, Washington, Utah,
Michigan and Hawaii round out the top 10, Schwer said.
Steve Soehlig probably isn't that 2 millionth resident, but he fits the profile
pretty well.
He is 42 years old. He has a master's degree and earns around $44,000 a year. He
was drawn here from Arizona by a job tied to tourism.
Soehlig even got here at about the right time.
On Aug. 12, he moved to Las Vegas from Phoenix with more stuff than his
one-bedroom apartment could hold. The next morning, he started his new job as
guest services supervisor for Virgin America airline, which began flights into
McCarran Oct. 10.
Until he moved here, Soehlig hadn't been to Las Vegas for five or six years.
"It's amazing how much it's changed. I didn't realize it was this large. I
didn't realize it had grown so much," he said. "Two million is a huge number,
and it's a major milestone."
Like a lot of newcomers, though, Soehlig views Las Vegas as a stepping stone, a
temporary stop on the way to someplace else. After a year or two, he hopes to
move up to one of Virgin's larger operations, possibly in Europe.
"I don't know if I'd want to raise a family here necessarily," he said. "(Las
Vegas) is very transient, just like Phoenix. People come for jobs. They come for
the opportunity. They don't come to stay."
Recent figures from U-Haul seem to bear that out.
During the first seven months of 2007, the national trailer rental company
helped move 4 percent more people out of Las Vegas than it helped move in.
Last year, U-Haul vehicles leaving the valley outnumbered those coming in by
about 3 percent, reversing the trend from 2005 that saw 3 percent more trucks
and trailers coming in than heading out.
Wardlaw the demographer said Southern Nevada tends to have a high level of
population "churn" that must be accounted for in any population estimate.
Ultimately, though, Clark County continues to see a net gain of between 4,700 to
6,000 residents a month, and he does not expect to see a major decline anytime
soon. "There are too many jobs here," he said.
Woodbury grudgingly agreed.
"One part of me wishes we could (have) put up a fence and not let that two
millionth person in," he said. "But people are coming, and we have to be ready
for them."
Contact reporter Henry Brean at
This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
or (702) 383-0350.
POPULATION AS OF JULY 1 2007
Clark County releases one official population estimate each year. This year's
figure, which is as of July 1, was 1,996,542. Here's how it breaks down by
community:
Unincorporated Las Vegas Valley 841,351
Cities
Las Vegas 603,093
Henderson 265,790
North Las Vegas 215,026
Mesquite 19,194
Boulder City 16,206
Outlying areas with more than 1,000 people
Laughlin 8,998
Moapa Valley 8,260
Sandy Valley 2,099
Indian Springs 1,695
Moapa/Moapa Reservation 1,373
Bunkerville 1,282
Mount Charleston 1,205
Primm 1,144
Rest of the county 9,826
Source: Clark County
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